Does anyone have a clue about what’s going on with AUKUS? To paraphrase Britain’s wartime prime minister Winston Churchill, when it comes to the biggest deal in town, never has so little been known by so many about so much. It’s a way of expressing an unpalatable truth: AUKUS has become the graveyard of Australian journalism.
We’ll start with this week and work backwards.
Snap … crackle … pop
Yesterday the Nine newspapers reported with some fanfare that Australia was “facing the prospect” of having to pay more for US nuclear-powered submarines (on top of the billions already shovelled out) and be forced to guarantee the boats would support America in a conflict over Taiwan. This fresh horror is what might emerge from a review by the Trump administration’s undersecretary for defense policy, Elbridge Colby. Equally, as we learn later, that might not emerge. That’s because Colby doesn’t have influence with the White House. Or maybe he does. Depends who you talk to.
The fabled Colby review has been the source of much angst since Britain’s The Financial Times revealed on June 11 that it was under way. This was said to be a snap review, lasting 30 days, just to make sure it was all tickety-boo with Donald Trump’s “America First” principles. On that time frame, today would be the deadline. Alas, we learn today that it’s set to drag on, possibly for months.
It gets worse. The Australian reports that the review “in fact” is “only now” beginning and is expected to take “some time”. In the meantime, the Albanese government will no doubt be reminded by the right-wing media that it needs to watch its Ps and Qs lest it offend the US while the review is under way.
Secret agent man
So we don’t know when the review will appear, what it will say and whether anyone will back it. When it comes to AUKUS, this is situation normal: secrecy; confusion; political games. It’s been this way since former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison unleashed it on Australians in September 2021. In governance terms, the process was corrupted from beginning to end by secrecy and deceit. In the nearly four years since, not much has changed.
The media first treated the story like a spy thriller as they pieced together how Morrison pulled it off without anyone knowing and as officials criss-crossed the globe on secret missions with code names such as Operation Hookless (favoured by former UK PM Boris Johnson).
This was the boys’ own adventure/admiration phase. Since then we’ve lived through the patriot phase, where it was anti-Australian to question AUKUS. With that we’ve had the pathetically grateful/needy phase where we tremble in fear should the US cancel it altogether. This has morphed seamlessly into the current phase in which it’s been sharpened by the right-wing media to attack Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over his “failure” to deal with Trump.
Licence to chill
Thankfully the UK government’s AUKUS envoy, Sir Stephen Lovegrove, visited the Antipodes this week to assuage our fears. He told the Australian Strategic Policy Institute:
“AUKUS needs constant love and attention. It is a huge thing. It is protean and it will change its shape a bit as time goes on, and that is quite right too.”
This sounds a little like a licence to do anything. So the guessing game continues. All we have ever had is a trail of breadcrumbs and an information vacuum which has left us clueless and vulnerable to bad actors — such as a US president bent on squeezing others for all he can get.
Shameful remnant of our most corrupt and self-promoting sycophantic ‘leader.’ When will we stop genuflecting to fading colonial empires and start being our own country? Keating has been spot on about all this for decades. Indonesia is a much more sensible ally, along with Asia Pacific neighbours. And most of them are wearing long pants now, even with their own flags and heads of state… Pemulwuy wept.
Totally agree with your comments. Keating was always spot on!
My thoughts exactly. We want a non-aligned Republic, sans Royal Family dregs, with great friendships with all in our region, especially our key trading partners. USA and UK are just dangerous for us, but we can retain friendship.
Total, time to shed the dross and the make believe.
Spot on Dr Lloyd thoroughly agree
It is a political axiom in Australia that if Morrison had anything to do with it, it’s a dud. He was sacked from Tourism NZ and from Tourism Australia before he manipulated the preselection process to get the job as MP for Cook.
As PM, he stabbed Turnbull in the back, was secretly sworn in as Minister for Five Things, was responsible for Robocop, the worst public service fiasco ever in Australia, and responsible for AUKUS. The bloke is a menace and Albanese would be justified in withdrawing from AUKUS by denigrating Morrison and his record in the same way that Trump speaks of Biden.
And was only ever a political device Morrison knew would be used by the hawks in the right wing press to wedge Labor if they abandoned it. Now that Albanese has won twice it’s time he listened to his constituents and got rid of it.
But unsurprisingly, he has been made a Companion of the Order of Australia …
Never should have been contemplated let alone allowed to happen. A whole lot of sycophants on that bus!
Utterly in agreement. Morrison’s a devious turd whose stench lingers. We must disengage from The Orange Man’s corrupt, deranged regime.
Now you are talking. They deserve nothing less than the middle finger I’m afraid.
Robodebt, not robocop.
What a shambles. Billions of taxpayers money down the drain while our education and health sectors run on empty. Until the formless Richard Marles is removed which is unlikely there will no real analysis. If ever Albanese could do something now is the time. It’s Time
It was very clear from the start that AUKUS, in the form of the fait accompli presented to the Australian people by Scotty, the Minister for Just About Everything, was (as the old limerick puts it) “the southernmost part … of a horse with a northerly trend”. The intervening four years has done nothing to dispel that impression. We should now use the Colby review to step smartly back from what is clearly a one-sided deal – especially if it comes with additional conditions like dragging us into an unwinnable war if America decides it wants us. By all means continue some sort of arrangement for mutual benefit with the UK if we have or need to, but let’s cut ourselves adrift from the Septics whilst we can, and before it costs us any more money that could be much more productively applied elsewhere.
With any sort of luck, the chaos
of the Trump presidency will be reorganised by an electoral reversal for the Trump forces at the mid-terms next year.
If that doesn’t occur, the future for us all will be dictated by Chaos Theory! Any rational planning will be next to useless.
Fascists and their like do not allow “electoral reversals”. (Yes, I know I’m on my soapbox again!)
I think it is unlikely that fair elections will be held in the US in our time. Even if they were Trump won’t honour them. He has already said that he does not recognise the Courts not Congress….if either try to counter him he will act to suppress them……t the moment he has both tied around his little finger.
This is what makes me smile when Barnaby criticises the PM for visiting an autocratic leader (in China) rather than pushing hard to see Trump – not realising that America now also has an autocratic leader. I know this is off topic but I think the PM is smart not to push too hard to see Trump – it makes it clear that there’s not too much we need from him. And if he wants to triple the cost to the American public for medicines made in Australia my guess it will hurt them more than us.
We have no guarantee of future elections in the USA. Trump told his supporters they won’t have to worry about voting again only this time for his win. He plainly stated this during the pre election rallies
I predict there’ll be no midterms.
Time to exit this charade and cut our losses.
The french might be able to help now the criminal out of office.
Best thing would be for trump to cancel the subs deal now.
Sure Australia will be billions down the drain but it’s better to take the hit sooner rather than later.,
While trump is president there will always be a doubt about the future of any deal.
Yes. And make Morrison and all the other ex MPs working on Aukus, pay our taxpayer money lost,
We are presented with an American chaotic shakedown and British spin. AUKUS should be dumped without delay.
The subs we won’t get will be strategically obsolete when we don’t get them (if you get my drift). And getting them on condition of signing up to America’s war is unthinkable.
This shambles of a project will not be the graveyard of Australian journalism, but it will be the graveyard of this government unless it develops a spine, levels with the Australian people and introduces some competence and transparency into the process. How would a PM and Defence Minister with some courage and competence handle this? Could you see a Keating or, heaven forbid, a Howard letting this horror show continue? It’s Labor’s project now – it can’t keep blaming Morrison forever.
Scomo was the nuclear farmer who went to market and bought a pig in a poke for $18 billion +, with a downpayment of $800 Million. Trouble is, by the time the Australian people open the sack, there will be nothing inside except hot air and bullshit. Expensive fertiliser!
I have little faith that any Prime Minister from Albanese on would have the guts to follow Curtin’s lead and countermand an order from any US President (and probably any UK Prime Minister or King of Australia) to join in a battle over Taiwan. Such a situation could occur years before Australia has taken delivery of any Aukus submarines.
The deal is bad enough in the first place. With Trump in place the only thing that will happen is we will pay more. If there is so much as a hint that Aus would be compelled to use these subs to engage in a war that do not have the sovereign right to choose, then cancel the deal. Just for interest , right now would you rather side with the American government of the Chinese. One is trying to damage the world economy in its own interest, flagrantly ignoring its own laws, dismantling systems to aid in its peoples health and wellbeing, and is run by a single autocrat and we have no idea whether it is still democratic, and its ‘elections’ are not governed by peoples true choice, they are manipulated by the maximum amount of money. The other, well are their sins any greater?
Interesting thought, Phil. I recall a businessman who operated in both China and the US once commenting that he could always trust the word of the Chinese in business transactions, but that the Americans were often untrustworthy, particularly the religious ones. It’s probably unfair to extrapolate from a small sample, but it’s a comment that has come back to mind often in the light of recent events. Nevertheless, independence from both based on skilled diplomacy seems probably the best long-term bet.
Nothing that the pathological liar and all round arsehole Morrison has touched,hasn’t turned to shit.Never debated in Parliament,this horrendous pile of shit known as AUKUS, or more accurately UFUKUS,saddled the country with a zillion dollar boondoggle,guaranteeing nothing but a wedge for Labor.And Albanese obliged for fear of upsetting the rabid dog media in this country.As Keating said at the time the worst policy decision in our history.
It would be a blessing were the orange halfwit to can it.He won’t ,it’s money for old rope.Albanese should,no must,bail out at the earliest opportunity.Being tied to the US at this point in time is a gigantic weight we cannot afford.
Morrison should be gaoled for his multiple offences.
Since we won’t be getting any subs for at least 10-15 years, I take it that Elbridge Colby reckons the war the US starts with Chine also won’t be for at least 10-15 years. That gives us plenty of time to source some non-nuclear subs, more suited to Australian waters, from Japan, or Korea or Sweden or France or, as Singapore has done, from Germany.
Last I looked, Singapore is a fair bit closer to China than we are, and I don’t think anyone has ever thought the Singaporeans waste money.
As for the Poms and their submarine yards, just watch Four Corners on iView. The relevant episode was three weeks ago and called “Submerged”.
The Beetoota Advocate sums this debacle up pretty well:
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/trump-demands-america-be-put-first-in-aukus/
Take a look at the fact that the Americans need a safe and secure submarine base in this part of the world for repair and maintenance. Perth fits the bill quite nicely. There is absolutely no chance that the Americans will let a foreign power “Australia” take control of a boat that is so critical to their vision of Pacific/oceanic control. The Virginia class sub is nuclear powered, technically superb, top secret, and loaded with nuclear weapons. Dream on you leaders in government and in senior military positions.
Any deal cooked up by the flunkies of 2 known bullshit artists and a septuagenarian with questionable cognitive function should have been subject to modern Government’s (of all flavours) favoured stalling and distraction device-a review.
Then followed by a cremation and burial
More “superior economic management”from the LNP! Billions paid with no guarantee for anything received. Genius!
ScoMo from marketing and two way ALBo are lazy prime ministers and their political parties primary votes reflect this in last two elections
Albo is far from lazy, Morrison was incompetent and easily corrupted. Labor has repaired an enormous amount of the damage caused by the conservatives both at home and abroad. He, with Penny Wong, are working diplomacy very well. Richard Marles needs to be more proactive in his portfolio and force a few issues to get clarity. If the US thinks we are not to be relied on with their boats maybe we should take total control of Pine Gap it is after all sovereign territory.
AUKUS may sink under its own weight. The US can’t produce the surplus subs to sell us and faces big hurdles in increasing its capacity to do so.
I am a baby boomer of 79 winters, and at 20 years old, a draft dodger and an activist against the Vietnam War who happens to loathe the whole idea of AUKUS, buying nuclear submarines, and toadying to US imperialism. I will keep saying it because it needs to be said. AUKUS, is a racist, retrograde, white supremacist, Churchillian (with all the disgustingly racist, and imperialist implications that carries), 19th Century view of the Asia Pacific region, revealing that what we have done is throw away our own independent sovereignty and join a paternalistic, racist, and privileged white man’s club trying to recapture a dead imperialist past, unlike Aotearoa, with one country, (the UK) being a dead empire and the other, (the USA) a degenerate, decadent, declining and decaying empire. The USA and UK are North American and European states, respectively, but we are very much an Asian-Pacific country. We will need to live with the justified opprobrium of the Asian and Pacific countries), including our close neighbours, (including Aotearoa), when they see that we have thrown our hand in with the two most arrogant capitalist regimes on the planet, One thought, how would the USA react if China established bases in international waters off the US west coast, near Hawaii or in the Caribbean? I think that question was answered when the USA in 1962 threatened nuclear war in concert with its illegal blockade of Cuba, a sovereign state by the way, and didn’t invoke the Monroe Doctrine either. The Monroe Doctrine is purely an American domestic/imperialist doctrine and has no force or recognition under international law.
The people were right about Iraq and the Government was wrong. The people are right about AUKUS and the government is wrong Our biggest threat and for the world is climate change. Obsolete expensive couple of submarines are just boys toys for boys wa games.
What a fantastic bunch of comments. It warms my heart to see so many people with a little common sense.
Sometimes I despair. I feel better now.
Worthwhile having a read of Andrew Fowler’s 2024 Walkley Award winning book, “NUKED”. Labor was more than just wedged by Morrison’s secrecy. Very in-depth and informative read.
Agree with all here….2nd term ALP ditching AUKUS would be Australia taking a mature approach to our sovereignty. So many of us seem to desire it gone. Don’t wait for Trump to do it. I would love to see the ALP stand up and take the lead here – I think the majority of us would applaud that action.
AUKUS would not have eventuated without Labor
Albanese: “I don’t think it’s much understood that a precondition of American support was that there be bipartisan support for it in Australia
Without Labor’s support, it wouldn’t have happened”
Labor ensured Morrison escaped judgement for Robodebt too
I agree with Stephen: A fantastic bunch of comments. It’s The People vs The Government all over again. We elect the bastards and they do us in every time. It seems very few PMs can fill the spot and retain their decency. Keating is one, Whitlam another, Curtin another. odd: they’re all Labor for what that’s worth.