This week Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson visited the occupied West Bank — not to see conditions on the ground for Palestinians but to spend time at an Israeli settlement. He became the highest-ranking US official to do so. Settlements are illegal under international law, so Johnson’s move sent a powerful message.
While there, the devout Christian proclaimed that he would stop the term “West Bank” being used at the federal level in the US and promote the exclusive use of “Judea and Samaria”, the biblical term which denotes Jewish bonds to the area. It was a sure sign to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government that powerful US legislators had its back. It also stood in stark contrast to undertakings from France, Germany and Canada supporting a Palestinian state.
Johnson’s visit shows it’s a new era in how America handles Israel and the Palestinian territories. It’s an era where the surging power of evangelical Christianity in the Trump administration coincides with the leaching of competence in the State Department, with decision-making centralised around a president and his pay-to-play approach to international affairs. Oh for the good old days of the George W. Bush neocons, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld and gang, who at least cited democracy as their reason to remake the Middle East.
Hard yards ahead
With that in mind, The Politics offers a seven-point rough guide to why a two-state solution seems a long way from happening — despite Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong among others insisting it’s the only path to the long-term security of Israel and the Palestinians.
1. Leader? What leader?
Much responsibility lies on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to oversee an effective Palestinian governing entity, covering the West Bank and Gaza. Abbas turns 90 this year. He’s been a chain-smoker most of his life and is in poor health. He’s been in power for 20 years and has seen his support ebb.
2. Hamas must step away
There is a universal demand that Hamas release Israeli hostages, lay down its arms and not be part of a new Palestinian entity. In a moment of history last week the 22-member Arab League declared that “Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority, with international engagement and support, in line with the objectives of a sovereign and independent Palestinian state”. The statement was also signed by all 27 European Union states and 17 other countries.
Hamas has vowed not to do that. It can claim that its tactics, repugnant and repulsive as they are, have brought about the present move. What’s in it for them?
3. A Palestinian state must demilitarise
But why should it, and why would it, given the weaponry Israel possesses?
4. What are the borders?
Under the Montevideo Convention of 1933, to become a state a country must exist within a clearly defined territory. What would that be? What happens to Israel’s vast settlement project in the West Bank which is now home to 700,000 Israelis?
5. Unresolved issues of earlier, failed negotiations
Three big issues stretching back decades remain unresolved. They are the right of Palestinians to return to their original homes, borders, and the status of Jerusalem.
6. No political will in Israel
The Netanyahu government is opposed to a Palestinian state. Most Israelis doubt the two states can peacefully coexist. In May, Israel approved a huge expansion of settlements on the West Bank. The Israeli NGO Peace Now said it was the largest expansion of settlements in more than 30 years. Defence Minister Israel Katz said the massive expansion was making a “strategic move that prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel and serves as a buffer against our enemies”.
7. The role of US evangelists
Johnson is the most senior Republican to publicly back Israel’s expansionist plans. But he is far from the only one to flex his political Christian muscle. US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee accompanied Johnson this week. So did other Republican representatives, including Claudia Tenney, who has launched a Congressional Friends of Judea and Samaria caucus. The caucus is advancing legislation which would ban the use of West Bank in official US government documents and require the use of Judea and Samaria: “We gotta start telling the truth. We need to be the catalyst.”
An act of faith
Notes on the Recognising Judea and Samaria Act introduced by Tenney say:
“The term ‘West Bank’ is used to delegitimize Israel’s historical claim to this land. In November 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the United States would formally recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and Judea and Samaria. This bill would require all official U.S. documents, statements, and laws to use the proper term of Judea and Samaria, rather than ‘West Bank’.”
She also supported legislation to have President Donald Trump’s birthday officially declared a federal holiday.
Welcome to the new Middle East power dynamic. Good luck, Albo. As Wong has intimated, time is running out.
David Hardaker is a former ABC Middle East correspondent based in Jerusalem. He also lived and worked in Egypt and the Gulf states for close to a decade.
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