“Delusional.” That was how former senior Liberal adviser Niki Savva summed up the Liberals’ bullish response to their Dunkley byelection loss on yesterday’s Insiders – and the word quickly began trending on the site formerly known as Twitter. The 3.6 per cent swing away from the government, which could best be described as par, was barely above the intentionally low expectations the Liberals set for themselves. And yet senior Libs have been boldly celebrating their modest swing, claiming that the party is “back”, with a swagger that would make you think they’d won the seat (shadow finance minister Jane Hume’s spinning has been particularly frenzied). Deep down, they must know that they’re not “back”, and there is no clear path to victory in either their old heartland or their new one. This was exactly the kind of outer suburban seat on which Peter Dutton’s electoral strategy hinges, under exactly the kind of electoral conditions that should have seen a decisive swing away from Labor. How much more proof does the Coalition need that its nasty, racist fear campaigns aren’t the way to go?
Despite the outward-facing bravado, quiet recriminations have begun over strategy. Former Liberal MPs Tim Wilson and Jason Falinski, who both lost their seats to teals in 2022, are calling for the party to return to its wealthy inner-city roots, pointing to “blue shoots” in teal-ish areas such as Mount Eliza, which swung back to the Libs. Dutton has since rejected suggestions he has given up on teal seats, claiming he plans to win them back with “credible policies on the economy, tax and climate change”. But it’s unclear how he expects anyone to believe that. As reported elsewhere in the AFR, Dutton last week flew across the country to be the star speaker at Gina Rinehart’s 70th birthday party, attending for around 40 minutes before jumping on a red-eye back to Melbourne. Today’s announcement, meanwhile, that the Coalition will soon unveil a “signature” energy policy centred around nuclear will do little to help its climate credibility, with experts labelling the Coalition’s newfound passion for nuclear a transparent attempt to delay the clean energy transition.
Then there is Liberal deputy Sussan Ley, the figure supposedly tasked with winning back the moderate women the party has pushed away. Ley, however, has given up any pretence of being a “moderate”, and has taken on an increasingly right-wing, post-truth role within the Opposition. Despite widespread condemnation, Dutton’s deputy has still not backed down from Thursday’s overt dog whistle, in which she suggested that anyone alarmed by “foreign criminals” needed to “send Labor a message”. Her bizarre performance in Dunkley on Saturday night would indicate that she is deep in denial, unable to recognise the true message contained within the result. Her party’s xenophobic appeals are not working, and many were relieved to note that Advance Australia’s advertising spend didn’t seem to have much impact.
None of this is to say that Labor has nothing to worry about. A swing is a swing is a swing, just as a win is a win is a win, and the government needs to remain conscious of the serious economic pain in seats like these. But they can breathe a sigh of relief at the comfortable Dunkley hold, and another at the fact that Dutton and Ley seem incapable of changing course. A decreasing number of moderates in the Liberal ranks recognise that the party needs to return to the centre if it is to be a mainstream force, with the outer suburbs sticking with Labor. Unfortunately for them, their leaders have little interest in mainstream ideas, and would rather delude themselves than listen to what the electorate is saying.
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